We are on to NFL Week 2, and our NFL Week 2 Picks. Week one gave us some wild action, upsets, and almost two ties. We go through our two favorite bets here, but make sure to catch our full breakdowns for every bet on the podcast!

All stats for win/loss records, against the spread, and over/under data is sourced from Bet IQ.

Consensus NFL Week 2 Picks

In 2021, picks that Jay and Q had a consensus on went 15-7. This included picks against the spread, on the money line, over, and under. Here are the consensus picks for week 2:

• Jaguars +4 at home against the Colts
• Lions -2.5 at home against the Commanders
• Steelers to win at home against the Patriots + Under 40.5

Dolphins vs Ravens Under 44.5 in Baltimore

The Dolphins scored 20 points in week one against the Patriots. That included a defensive touchdown, a short pass that Jaylen Waddle took 42 yards for a touchdown, and two 40+ yard field goals. The team totaled 271 yards, and only had one drive that exceeded 55-yards. I simply do not trust Tua to drive to the endzone without having been put in favorable situations. Meanwhile, I expect the Ravens to use a dynamic run game to keep the clock running. However, we should also remember that the Ravens really struggled against the Miami defense in 2021, scoring only 10 points. Maybe the Ravens come out guns blazing after being embarrassed in 2021. Or maybe this is just a defensive battle where neither offense gets much going. Either way, I love the under on this game.

Falcons vs Rams in Los Angeles

This week, Jay and Q have one “split-decision”, which is also Jay’s best bet of the week. It is for the cover in the Flacons and Rams game in Los Angeles. Jay is laying the points with the Rams as -10.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Q is taking the points with dirty birds as +10.5-point dogs.

The argument for the Rams is that they have some dogs on that team, and they got embarrassed on national TV in week one. Meanwhile, the Falcons are not good. We have fallen into the Falcons trap many times before, and Jay insists that we need to resist falling into it again. He expects the Rams to put on a show against the dirty birds, with Allen Robinson to having a big bounce back performance. The Bills are really freaking good. And the Rams are too good to not make a statement here.

Now, the argument for the Falcons. This argument starts with the idea that 10.5 points is just too many. Especially this early in the season when the Falcons feel like they could still be in this thing after fighting to the last second against the Saints.

Over the last 5-years, there have only been 8 teams to have a closing spread of +10.5 or more in week 2. Three of those teams covered. The other five teams? One was leading at half and fumbled the cover away in the second half, and the remaining four were bad teams coming off blowout losses. The Falcons just lost their week one game by a matter of inches. Then, add in the mess that is the Rams offensive line and run game going against Grady Jarrett. And finally, think about Stafford’s elbow issue and his lack of zip on the football in week one. That is enough for Q to take Falcons +10.5.

Don’t forget to go like, follow, subscribe, and listen to Shaving Points Podcast on YouTube, Spotify or Apple Podcasts!