NFL Week 1 Model Picks

The Shaving Points Projection Model reveals its projected spreads, win probabilities, and game totals for NFL Week 1.

NFL Week 1 Model Picks
NFL Week 1 Picks

In the graphic you can see all the modeled preferences for NFL week 1. The columns in yellow show the spreads, odds, implied odds (assigned win probability), and over/under lines. To the right, you see the model projections for spread, win probability, and over/under (projected total points in the game). Any spread or win probability highlighted in green means that the model thinks that team covers or wins. Any total highlighted in green represents the over. Please consider that the model has historically performed much better with under bets.

The 2022 NFL Season is the first season where we are using all five of these models together. In 2021, Q used the DVOA and EPA models in together (along with considerations from PFF and 538 models) to make all his NFL bets.

Last year, using the model as a major factor in his picks, Q went 88-93 (+7 units). That includes ATS, Money Line, Over/Under, Parlays, and Teasers. However, the models are highly volatile for the first four weeks of the season. This is because they rely on last season’s data at the start of the new season. The 2021 data is just not reflective of what NFL teams are putting on the field in 2022. In 2021, the picks obtained from the model went 75-71 after week 4 (+11.3 units).

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