NCAA Tournament Upset Index 2022

Press play on the video below to hear about the 2022 NCAA Tournament Upset Index by @ButkusStats.

A quick explanation of the graphic. So, every team here was listed on both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll. They all received some votes, but they may not be top 25. In the next columns we look at strength of schedule (SOS) rank and margins based on the teams adjusted efficiency margin and their margin of victory. So, their point differential over the course of the season. Next, we have luck rating according to efficiency models, the team’s road win percentage, and their road ATS margin.

Moving forward to the teams’ short rest win percentage, which is a huge factor in the tournament. These guys will be playing on shorter rest than they ever have, aside from tournament years they previously played in. Then there’s short rest ATS margin, or how much a team beats or goes under the spread on average over the course of the season.

By averaging all those ranks we get what we call the tournament rank, which we are weighing against their poll ranks, RPI and net. Theoretically, their tournament rank tells us how much they can over perform their current rank.

NCAA Tournament Upset Index

After looking over the NCAA tournament upset index, go subscribe and listen to Shaving Points Podcast on Spotify! We prep you for March Madness before getting into NFL news and some mock draft talk.

Update: The Madness is here. Listen to the Shaving Points Podcast on Spotify to hear us talk through matchups and all the model picks for NCAA Tournament.

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