After seeing some content today focused on Justin Fields QBR, @ButkusStats wanted to take a look at a few things. Being the wizard he is, it didn’t take long for a table to appear. The table is sorted by rookie season QBR and shows data for BTT, TWP, PFF and dollars spent on offensive. The table includes every QB to start 10+ games in their rookie season since 2012. Overall, Justin Fields QBR was not pretty.
However, only three rookie QBs have matched Fields big time throw rate (Baker, Russ, Luck) and Fields was still above average in turnover worthy plays. Fields PFF rating when kept clean was above average, while his PFF grade under pressure was slightly below average.
Also, we see that the Bears were below average in dollars spent on offensive positions (excluding QB spending). This figure seems to be well correlated to rookie QB success with a correlation coefficient to QBR of 0.64.
So, while Fields does appear to be an outlier from his peers in QBR, it is important for the Bears to get more talent around him. His BTT, TWP, and grades when kept clean show a lot of potential. If he doesn’t get some help, he might not reach it.
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