Does the Bears Offense have enough Talent?
A pretty fair comparison lately for the Chicago Bears offensive roster around Justin Fields has been the 2019 Buffalo Bills. 2nd year for Josh Allen, defensive HC, and not a lot of WR help or NFL starting experience on the offense. So, I decided to put the Bills and Bears Offense side by side:
Comparing the top producing WR situation:
#1 WR: BUF: Cole Beasley (30 years old) came over from DAL where he averaged 64 that’s, 53 catches, 467 yds per season as a slot WR. CHI: Darnell Mooney enters his age 25 season averaging 119 targets, 71 catches, 843 yards over his first 2 years
#2 WR: BUF: John Brown (29 years old) came to BUF after averaging 86 targets, 43 catches, 646 yds per season Byron Pringle (29 years old) cakes to CHI after averaging 31 targets, 22 catches, 299 yds per season
#3 WR: BUF: Isaiah McKenzie enters his age 24 season averaging 22 targets, 11 catches, 104 yds over his first 2 years CHI: Velus Jones enters his first season as a 3rs round pick
Comparing the OL situation:
BUF: The starting OL totals 179 games, 132 starts, and 64 AV. The median is 48 games, 27 starts, and 10 AV. CHI: The starting OL totals 184 games, 139 starts, and 65 AV. The median is 10 games, 8 starts, and 3 AV.
So, while the totals on OL are similar, the Bears current starting OL has fewer experienced players.
The largest difference in total roster is depth. Largely due to ageless legend Frank Gore. But even without him, the BUF roster had more depth behind their starters in general, which the Bears might continue to add in the coming months. Here are just the starters for the Buffalo Bills and Chicago Bears Offense:
For reference, the Bills went 10-6 in 2019. Josh Allen had 3,089 passing yds, 20 TDs, 9 INTs. He ranked 21st in EPA/Play, 21st in success rate, 22nd in CPOE, and 4th in ADOT. I believe that Allen was more of a project than Fields. But Bears roster is probably behind the 2019 Bills.
Plus, the 2019 Bills had the #7 defense by DVOA, the #5 defense by EPA/Play, and played the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL according to DVOA. The Bears schedule is on the easier side, and the defense is improved after the draft, but top 10 might be an ambitious projection.
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