the models calculations
Factors and Weights
1. Handicap Model #1
The model uses advanced stats to generate a handicap for each game. Stats used include TO rate and TO rate allowed, Effective FG % for and allowed, offensive and defensive rebound rates, FT rates for and allowed.
2. Handicap Model #2
A simple calculation using offensive rating and defensive rating per possession and each teams’ average possessions.
3. Creating the Baseline Confidence
Difference between projected spread and the real spread to set a baseline confidence for each team to cover. To do this the differential is divided by the expected total points in the game. We call this confidence index, which is added to 50%. If our initial baseline is each team has a 50/50 chance.
4. Factoring for Season Results ATS
Confidence % is made up of three factors. Each teams cover % ATS during the season at a weight of 1/3. Their home / road cover % at a weight of 1/3, and their KenPom SOS & Luck ratings (a simple combination of the two stats) at a weight of 1/3.